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Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Predicting Reoffense for Community-Based Sexual Offenders: An Analysis of 30 Years of Data

Original Article

05/29/2012

Abstract:
This study contributes to the area of risk prediction by exploring whether the Static-99R is useful for predicting reoffense in community-based samples, and for noncontact offenders with and without identified victims. A total of 744 participants drawn from an outpatient sex offender treatment program in a large metropolitan area were followed for a period of up to 30 years. Multiple Cox Regressions were run; covariates included length of treatment, status in treatment, Static-99R items, and number of technical probation violations. Overall, reoffending was an infrequent occurrence in this sample regardless of how it was defined, with sexual reoffenses identified in 13% of the sample and any criminal reoffense identified in 20% of the sample. Consistent with previous research, the Static-99R was a better predictor of sex-related reoffenses than of nonsexual reoffenses. However, in no case were more than a couple of the items significantly related to reoffending and these items differed depending on reoffense definition.


3 comments :

  1. Oddly enough in Iowa I was classified as tier 3 despite a zero score on my Static 99 evaluation. This to me demonstrates how out of step the methods being used for tier classification are in that state and from what I know many others. 

    ReplyDelete
  2. i was told it goes by the coding in the book as where you will be place in there tier system,they dont look at your cause or any type information..before the AWA i was classified as a lvl 1 and would be done in feb of 2013,now due to iowa's AWA and their coding I am tier 3..dont seem top make much sense does it..

    ReplyDelete
  3. Has there been any class action suits in Iowa over the retroactivity of AWA?  We had a similar case here in Ohio, and then the June 2010 
    State v. Bodyke case overturned the retroactive tiering.  Applying it retroactively is totally unconstitutonal.  Hopefully Iowa (and other states for that matter who have adopted the AWA) can use the Ohio Supreme Court ruling to state the obvious, and get everyone back to the original tier, where the original judge says people should be. Or better yet, for the U.S. Supreme Court to bring down the registry laws altogether.  

    ReplyDelete

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